Each score comes from a win-probability model run on the match’s events, stats and pre-match betting markets.
Match flow. Starting from the pre-match odds, the model recalculates each side’s chances at every event, then measures how far they moved, when, and how long the result stayed open. Late movement carries more weight.
Match events. Goals, cards, penalties, saves and shot volume, weighted so that goals aren’t counted twice.
Context. What the match decided, from table position late in a season to knockout rounds and aggregate scores, plus established rivalries. Stakes amplify what happened on the pitch; they don’t replace it.
Scoring is deterministic and versioned. The same match data always produces the same score, and no score is adjusted by hand. Every match is rescored when the model changes, and each release is checked against a set of reference matches. If a match’s data can’t be retrieved, it gets no score rather than an estimate.